That is actually not a high-yield investment. It only would be if (1) you are wildly disagreeing with the smartest people and actually turn out to be right, or if (2) you're betting honestly and objectively against ideologues who are going to lose their shirts.
I made a 33% profit on Intrade Play$, going all in on Obama in early October when he was at 76.5% (I'd also put in a bit earlier, when it was lower). Assuming my double-down (at 50%) on voter turnout being over 60% is accurate, I stand to sit at roughly 160% profit (or nearly 100% loss: still risky) for a total of three informed decisions over a period of ~2 months.
Granted, I'm using play money, and not following any safe investing plan. My second call was based on ten minutes research and some fudge factors for the added gravity of the issues, and for Obama's well-coordinated campaign bringing out extra voters out (both for and against him). It could yet be wrong: Obama may have intimidated Republican voters, McCain might have alienated them, I might have relied on bunk analysis, etc.
Still, open and fair bets that don't wildly disagree with smart people or appear to be bets against ideologues, potentially making what I'd consider radical profit for the time invested. The opportunity exists for high-yield, assuming you're comfortable with high risk.
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Date: 2008-11-06 12:16 am (UTC)I made a 33% profit on Intrade Play$, going all in on Obama in early October when he was at 76.5% (I'd also put in a bit earlier, when it was lower). Assuming my double-down (at 50%) on voter turnout being over 60% is accurate, I stand to sit at roughly 160% profit (or nearly 100% loss: still risky) for a total of three informed decisions over a period of ~2 months.
Granted, I'm using play money, and not following any safe investing plan. My second call was based on ten minutes research and some fudge factors for the added gravity of the issues, and for Obama's well-coordinated campaign bringing out extra voters out (both for and against him). It could yet be wrong: Obama may have intimidated Republican voters, McCain might have alienated them, I might have relied on bunk analysis, etc.
Still, open and fair bets that don't wildly disagree with smart people or appear to be bets against ideologues, potentially making what I'd consider radical profit for the time invested. The opportunity exists for high-yield, assuming you're comfortable with high risk.