nemorathwald (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
nemorathwald) wrote2008-11-05 12:25 pm
nemorathwald) wrote2008-11-05 12:25 pm
(no subject)
On ElectoralVotes.net, the top map is the actual election result. The map below that is the election projection on the InTrade prediction market. See for yourself. Unless I misperceive, as I scroll back in time, Indiana and Missouri are the only states whose trading projections changed from red to blue or vice-versa since September.
Projection:
Democrat 364
Republican 174
Actual:
Democrat 364
Republican 174
My take-home idea from this is a threefold plan. (A) Encourage prediction market contracts which are conditional: "If measurable X happens, measurable Y will happen. If measurable X does not happen, measurable Z will happen." (B) Put that in a section of all the newspapers, just like the stock reports. (C) When a politician makes a goofy claim, ask them why they aren't putting their money where their mouth is.
Projection:
Democrat 364
Republican 174
Actual:
Democrat 364
Republican 174
"If Missouri ends up going for John McCain, Intrade had the electoral vote count dead on. Traders gave Obama a razor thin lead there, but it was truly a coin toss. The only state that was objectively wrong was Indiana."You may wonder why I am posting this. After all, it's not in order to make a killing on the prediction market. That is actually not a high-yield investment. It only would be if (1) you are wildly disagreeing with the smartest people and actually turn out to be right, or if (2) you're betting honestly and objectively against ideologues who are going to lose their shirts. No, the reason is that there is an method of aggregating the best expertise and disseminating it to me reliably. This is just the latest confirmation in years of consistent results.
My take-home idea from this is a threefold plan. (A) Encourage prediction market contracts which are conditional: "If measurable X happens, measurable Y will happen. If measurable X does not happen, measurable Z will happen." (B) Put that in a section of all the newspapers, just like the stock reports. (C) When a politician makes a goofy claim, ask them why they aren't putting their money where their mouth is.